It’s rare to see so many economists in agreement on the direction of the economy. But with nearly all of the leading economic indicators showing strength, it’s difficult for anyone to make a case for an economy on the brink of a setback.
In fact, the leading economic index increased 1.2% in October and the index for current economic conditions was up 0.3%. With the past two quarters topping the 3% growth mark and the fourth quarter looking to do the same, it will be the first time since 2009 that the economy has seen such a prolonged stretch of strong growth. And, with nearly all of the components in the economic index on the rise, it’s hard to make the case for anything but solid growth for the foreseeable future, even for the most bearish of economists.
Goldman Sachs recently gave tax reform an 80% chance of passing by early 2018. With some of those expectations already baked into the markets, lawmakers have a strong incentive to come to agreement before mid-term elections later in the year.
Coupled with positive movement in the international economy, where Europe’s largest economy in Germany is up a surprising 0.8% and the Japanese economy has seen growth over each of the last seven quarters, there is little fear that world economic conditions will sour and pull our economy down in the short term. And, with still historically low interest rates, most experts are predicting an economy that will plow through 2018 with little trouble.
Experts attribute the growth to a perfect storm of rising corporate profits that promote business spending, increases in personal consumption spending, increased productivity from the business economy and demographic shifts that are helping large industries including healthcare, construction, insurance and household products and automobiles.
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